Plays Of The Day, Tuesday 10/28/08

Opening night has finally arrived for the NBA. I'm in two $1 contests -- I haven't been paying any attention at all to the preseason, so no big plays. There are three games on the schedule, which means that there aren't many players to choose from and I would expect scores to be tight.

Worth noting: A change this season is that NBA contests now involve the selection of NINE players - a center and two at each other spot. This is an improvement, in my decidedly non-expert opinion. We'll see how it plays out in reality.

Seven NHL games and a full slate of contests on tap. Being on Eastern time is a pain, as games start at 7:00 and I don't get home until 6:30 or so. Probably no contests for me.

Football contests for this coming weekend are up and early participation is heavy. I will probably submit entries later in the week. Unless I hit on a combination that I really like, my number of contests and total at risk amounts will probably be low again. I'm thinking 5-8 contests, but that may change.

Good luck!

Week 8 Results

Looking on the bright side, I had a +400% return on investment on NASCAR. That's right, I won my dollar contest for a $5 payday. Apparently all you have to do is pick the winner of the Nationwide race and the guys who finish 1-2-3 in the Sprint Cup race. Easy.

Uh, right.

It was another disappointing week on the football side, as I cashed in only 1 of 5 contests. Net loss of about twenty two bucks. My team scores weren't awful, they simply weren't good enough.

I did manage to beat Dr. Pauly's score in Sundays With Dr. Pauly, so I have a streak of one in a row on the way to three and a seat in the Tournament of Champions. I am barely hanging on to first place in the Blogger Battle, but Buffalo66 has really closed the gap over the last two weeks (you want to see a killer week? +110% ROI - go check it out. That's beyond description).

I need to get back on track.

One bad selection can be all it takes to disrupt things. For me, it was of all things a defense. Defense. The red-headed stepchild of fantasy football. I feel like Jim Mora. "Defense? You talkin bout defense?" Or maybe I'm channeling Allen Iverson. I forget.

Anyway, I took a gamble on a cheap, lousy defense - San Francisco - playing at home, with new head coach Mike Singletary, against a Seattle team starting a backup quarterback, wide receivers picked out of the stands and not much of a running game. FAIL. Seneca Wallace turned into Joe Montana and the Seahawks won in a rout. Minus 4 points from the defense.

The contest I won was where I did not have the SF D.

Next week, I will be upgrading my defense. It will leave fewer points to spend on skill positions, but it's necessary - it's too hard to overcome a zero or negative score.

Week 8 Plays

A fairly light weekend for me. I'm in five football contests and a dollar NASCAR event. Carl Edwards won yesterday which was a nice start.

As for football, I decided not to get too carried away after looking at the matchups - I didn't see too many that I really liked, other than every player on the Redskins against the Lions. Of course as I write this, the Lions are up 7-3 and Washington just punted. Go figure. Key player for me this week is Donovan McNabb.

The NBA season starts this week, and I joined a cheapo contest for Tuesday just to check things out. I haven't put any effort into basketball historically, in large part because it's my least favorite of the major sports. We'll see how the action is and if I should get busy studying.

Good luck to all participating in today's contests.

Fun With Math, Part 1

(First in what may prove to be a series on the math of fantasy sports. Disclaimer: I am not a statistician, so consider this to be on the level of a "Dummies" book.)

So you've made a deposit into Fantasy Sports Live. A question that may immediately come to mind is "how many contests should I play?"

Let me answer your question with a question: "How much risk are you comfortable with?"

Assume, first of all, that you have determined the amount that you're going to put in play for the day's set of contests (1). Let's say, for example, that you've decide that you're going to play $22 worth of football contests.

In that case, your choices are one $22 contest, two $11 contests or four $5.50 contests (yes, theoretically you could play twenty-two $1 contests, but let's be real here).

Next, assume that you have an edge and that edge is consistent. You're an educated fantasy football player, which gives you an edge of 55% to win, 45% to lose in any given contest. (2)

Third, assume that you play heads up contests. (3)

If you put your entire roll on one contest, you have a 55% chance of winning $40 (plus $18 net) and a 45% chance of losing $22 (minus $22 net).

If you decide to play two contests, you have a 30.25% chance of winning $40 (plus $18 net), a 49.50% chance of "winning" $20 (minus $2 net) and a 20.25% chance of losing $22 (minus $22 net).

If you play four contests, you have a 9.15% chance of winning $40 (plus $18 net), a 29.95% chance of winning $30 (plus $8 net), a 36.75% chance of "winning" $20 (minus $2 net), a 20.05% chance of "winning" $10 (minus $12 net) and a 4.10% chance of losing $22 (minus $22 net). (4)

We can draw two obvious conclusions from this very simplistic example:

1. When you spread your bankroll over more contests, your risk of ruin (losing it all) is reduced. In this example, you've 45% likely to "go broke" on 1 contest, only 4.1% likely if you play four.

2. Conversely, the more contests you play, the less likely it is that you will make the big score -- less than a 10% chance of coming out plus $18 over four contests vs. 55% in one.

Also (but not obvious, given the simplistic example), once you get beyond one contest, the more contests played - assuming the same edge - the greater the probability that you will turn a net profit.

The takeaway? If you're trying to build a bankroll in a hurry, you'd generally be better off playing fewer, higher buy in contests (IF you can maintain the same edge). If you're more concerned with going broke, spreading your buyin over more contests is the way to go.

More thoughts on this subject to come.

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Notes:

(1) The portion of your "bankroll" that you should put into play in any given week is an entirely different subject, and one which I hope to touch on in another post.

(2) Maximizing your edge is also a subject for another post. This is groundwork right here. I realize that it's extremely simplistic to assume that your edge will always be the same - in the real world, it never is, in large part because you'll pretty much never be playing the same opponent with the same lineups.

(3) For the sake of simplicity. The math gets harder if we're talking 6 or 10 player contests.

(4) It may also be worth noting that in this example your expected value - expected return - in each case is exactly the same, $22. This is a function of both consistent assumptions and the proportionately identical 'rake' charged by the site.

The Wish List: Buddies

(This is part 1 of what will be an occasional series on features I'd like to see added to Fantasy Sports Live. Please note that these are strictly my personal wishes, and they may or may not be something the good folks at FSL would consider. For all I know, they may be impractical - that's why this is a "wish" list)

Approximately 27% of the fun of fantasy sports is competing against your buddies.

At Fantasy Sports Live (bonus code bonds, obviously), you can compete against friends from all across the country - as well as total strangers. I frequently run across people I know, either in real life or by their electronic "handle", signed up for contests.

When you access the site, you are presented with a list of open contests. You can see who is signed up for an open contest by clicking on it. If you're looking to match up against one of your friends, you may need to open a bunch of them to find the person you're looking for - especially if he or she is in something high volume like an $11 fantasy football contest. It's not hard, just slow.

Online poker sites offer a feature called a "buddy list". You can request a search, and the software will identify each table where your buddy is sitting. I'd like to see FSL have a similar feature.

Think of what having a buddy list could do for you: You can hunt down your friends, take their money and taunt them for their selection of the injured, the lame and the untalented. You could also, theoretically, take note of games in which your most feared opponents are entered and avoid those contests. Of course you could do that anyway, but again it involves some clickage.

So there you have it, one for the wish list: A buddy list.

Sundays With Dr. Pauly Week 7

(ed note: For details on Sundays With Dr. Pauly, click here)

In a word: FAIL. In two words: MASSIVE FAIL.

I came into Week 7 riding a two week winning streak. One more week of beating Dr. Pauly's score and I would be in the Tournament of Champions, playing for that $200 in bonus cash.

Yes.

And then I picked too many Saints and Colts in a week where both teams took a dump. Oops.

Fail.

No cash, no TOC entry.

I can't help but feel a little snakebit. This was the second time I had a two week steak going - after ending up tied in Week 1, I beat Pauly in Weeks 2 and 3, failed in Week 4, beat his score in Weeks 5 and 6.

Back to the drawing board. Fortunately, there are still 8 weeks left. The bad week also left me lagging behind in the second Super TOC battle - three weeks left to make up a lot of ground.

For full results on Week 7, see the official Fantasy Sports Live blog.

Sundays With Dr. Pauly

Dr. Pauly is a popular poker blogger and writer and part of the Fantasy Sports Live brain trust. As he did in 2007, Pauly has teamed up with FSL to offer a weekly NFL series with tons of BONUS CASH ADDED!

From the official Fantasy Sports Live blog:

FantasySportsLive.com is proud to announce our second annual Sundays with Dr. Pauly promotion. Compete against Dr. Pauly in weekly fantasy football contests on FSL and earn bonus cash for your efforts. $500 total in bonus cash will be added by FSL over the season long promotion. There will be four ways to earn bonus cash, and each $11 weekly 10 player contest will also pay out $50 for 1st, $30 for second, and $20 for third. Anyone can enter the Sunday's with Dr. Pauly contests, but only your first entry each week will count towards the added bonuses.

Four ways to win bonus cash

1) Beat Dr. Pauly's fantasy score for three straight weeks and get a free entry in the season ending Tournament of Champions. Beat Pauly's score in the tournament of champions and take home some bonus cash. All TOC entries who beat Pauly's score in the TOC will split $200 in added cash equally.

2) Score the highest weekly fantasy score in any Sundays with Dr. Pauly contest all season and win a $75 bonus. Second highest for the season gets a $25 bonus.

3) Win a 5 week series and get $25 plus an entry in the 4-way Super TOC. 5 week series run Weeks 1-5, Weeks 6-10, and Weeks 11-15. Super TOC week 16. Highest total points scored over the 5 weeks wins the series.

4) Beat Pauly's score in the 4-way Super TOC. Players who beat Pauly's score in the super TOC will split $125 in added prizes. Dr. Pauly will add a personal prize to the winner of the super TOC.

Note: Dr. Pauly gains free entry into both TOC and super TOC and can win the added prizes if he wins either TOC outright. Don't let him do this. Win Dr. Pauly's money!

It's not too late to jump in - TOC entries and prizes for the highest weekly score are there for the taking!

The Games

At the present time, you can play fantasy baseball (MLB), football (NFL), hockey (NHL), basketball (NBA) and stock car racing (NASCAR) at Fantasy Sports Live.

There are different types of contests within each genre, and I hope to expand this post in the future to cover each of them.

The sports offered and the types of contests do change, so be sure to check Fantasy Sports Live for the latest!

Welcome!

Welcome to the Winning At Fantasy Sports Live blog. I'm bonds, a regular player over at Fantasy Sports Live ("FSL"). Let's get some things out of the way:

1. Fantasy Sports Live is owned by Fantasy Day Sports Corp. The name "Fantasy Sports Live" and all images associated with that site are the property of Fantasy Day Sports Corp. and no claim of ownership is made. All rights to trademarks, copyrights or other intellectual property are reserved to the owner.

I am an affiliate of FSL, which brings me to...

2. If you decide to sign up over at FSL, I'd be much obliged if you click one of my links to get there or enter bonus code Bonds when you sign up. This is a win-win deal - you get the best signup bonus offered by FSL, I get a little something for bringing the site a new player.

At the moment, you can get a signup bonus of $10 on an initial deposit of $50, a $20 bonus on an initial deposit of $100 and $30 on an initial deposit bonus of $200. This is THE best offer out there - without using bonus code Bonds the standard initial deposit bonus is $10 for a $100 deposit.

3. My favorite fantasy sport, by far, is fantasy NFL football. You'll usually find me in a bunch of contests each week. I do dabble a little in NBA basketball, NHL hockey and (good grief) fantasy NASCAR. Still learning those. Once spring rolls around I'll probably get back into baseball which used to be a big passion. If FSL ever offers fantasy college football work may never hear from me again. What can I say, I'm a sports junkie. Fantasy golf anybody? (Not yet available on FSL)

4. Even though my FSL track record is decent (if I do say so myself), there is no such thing as a sure thing. Fantasy sports contests are contests of skill, but everyone can have an off day. I'm not going to pick winners for you on this blog - that's your job obviously - but I do hope to share some insights that I've picked up along the way.

5. Fantasy sports, like anything else, are supposed to be fun. For pete's sake, don't play with the rent money.

Have a good time playing daily fantasy sports at Fantasy Sports Live, I do.