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Sunday, February 1, 2009

A January To Forget?

Month end wrap up time.

After a stellar December that saw no losing days and a +28.3% ROI, January was not so good. Actually, if you break it down football continued to be a winner with a +50.9% ROI in limited play. It's basketball that's not holding up its end of the bargain with a -11.6% ROI after yesterday's debacle. Overall the net result was -6.8%.

Actually, it's almost amazing that the basketball ROI was that "good". I opened the month with 7 consecutive losing days, had 1 winner, and followed it up with 5 more losers in a row. 12/13 losers. Yikes. Somewhere near the end of that string I figured out what I should be playing and results improved with four winners in a row before yesterday (when, to be honest, I deviated from playing what I should somewhat). I think I can be a modest winner if I stick to playing what I should.

Charts?

Charts. First up is the only one that really matters - cumulative winnings for the month.:

As it turns out, if I had wanted to, I could have played a single contest yesterday and if I'd won, I could have claimed a positive month in all sports. If I'd lost, I still could have claimed a positive month overall.

But that would be retarded. The goal is the maximize return, not post winning months. I thought - wrongly as it turned out - that I had good rosters yesterday, so I pressed. I regret nothing.

Moving along, we have daily win/loss, which doesn't really mean anything but does show what a clunker yesterday was:

And the also meaningless daily ROI chart:


So that was January. The real winner in January was the rake - even though I play at happy meal stakes, the amount I paid in rake was enough to swing me from an insignificant win (+2.7%) to the loss of 6.8%.

February is likely to feature continued basketball play, but with a renewed effort to focus on the contests where I have positive results to date. I'll probably still play the dollar multis - even though they're a leak - simply for entertainment value.

Hockey is still an option but not one I'm ready to charge into. More likely is NASCAR, which starts up shortly, I think, since I've started seeing the odd commercial for Daytona.

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