Friday Night Was Alright

Yesterday was a good day. Won my two $1 multis. The only blemish was a 5 point loss in a heads up contest.

Friday results: 6 contests entered (2 - 10 player, 1 - 6 player, 3 HU); 5 cashes (2, 1, 2); amount risked: $17.70; amount won: $32.00; net: $14.30; ROI: +80.8%

Last chance to make January a decent month today. Looks like there are 10 games on the schedule, so the action should be good. Pick well.

Fun With Computers, Part 2

{See Part 1 down the page for background}

So the results were as follows: Hand picked team 248 points (and no cash), Computer optimized team 228 points.

The hand picked team had Mo Williams perform double digits below projection, everyone else was pretty close, thus the team ended up 7 points below projection.

The computer optimized team had three guys perform double digits below projection - Williams, Shaq and Pietrus. Only Tony Parker was above projection, and his +8 was not enough to cancel out even one of the duds. You can optimize all you want, but there is no substitute for performance.

I updated the program database with yesterday's actual point totals and had the computer re-crunch the numbers. Your optimal team in terms of results:


313 points. Nice. The hand picked team put up 79% of that number, the computer optimized team 73%. Neither was within 50 points. The best score in my contests was 273 (87%).

It's interesting that the optimal team did not have either Lebron or Duncan. Both had solid games, but were very close to their point cost. Lebron was -3, while Duncan was even. Obviously you want those guys on your roster on nights they go off, but not necessarily on their "average" nights.

Well, that was a fun experiment.

***

What am I going to do with this program? Probably Most likely Almost certainly nothing. For a couple reasons: It's hard coded, meaning that it has fixed data relating to yesterday's games. It's written in Turbo Pascal 5.5, vintage late 1980s. It has no user interface worth mentioning. And it would be kind of a pain to scale it up to deal with days like today when there are 11 games and over 100 players worth considering.

The biggest obstacles, really, are first my lack of programming skill - it's been years since I've done any, and I've forgotten a lot - and knowledge. I haven't ever programmed in a Windows environment. Second: I haven't come up with a way to get mass amounts of data scraped and entered - to really be useful, you have to be able to plug in estimated performance for your players. You have to have the point/salary information for the players. And you have to be able to identify which players are actually playing! To do it all manually is too time consuming.

Having gone through this exercise, I think a more useful tool would allow you to enter up to 40-60 players maximum rather than use the entire player universe. I would probably add a dummy 10 point/10k player at each position (you could set the expected performance if you wished, otherwise, figure you can always scrape up a couple points from a scrub) by default. The program would then optimize your roster using that universe of players. You'd still have to do some manual data entry - maybe drag and drop for a lot of it, and it could keep a database of point/salary information - but it would be managable.

Hmm. It might be time to actually break out that "Teach Yourself Java" book I picked up a while back. Updates, if any, as they develop.

Short

Well the hand picked team came up short. 248 points was good for sixth place, 11 points out of first. But I'll dwell on that later when I throw up part two of "Fun With Computers".

I entered two other contests. In addition to the heads up match I posted below, with about five minutes to tipoff I jumped into another 10 player multi. It was time to for another "first" - I decided to see what would happen if I went with a short roster. The first time through I had only 7 guys, but since I didn't know if that would be DQ'd, I chickened out and split one guard into two scrubby shooting guards. I was a PG short of full. 8 players.

What do you know, it worked. This time. Good for 2nd place.

Three other entrants also went with short rosters (why do I keep wanting to refer to it as "shortstacking"? Too much poker?). It didn't work out so well for them, as they all missed the money.

I don't think I'm likely to employ the short roster as a regular feature, but it was amusing to try it. With the availability of $1 contests at Fantasy Sports Live, you can do stupid stuff like that if you want without breaking your roll.

Thursday results: 3 contests entered (2 - 10 player, 1 HU); 2 cashes (1, 1); amount risked: $5.40; amount won: $9.00; net $3.60; ROI +66.7%

Fun With Computers, Part 1

So I've had this idea kicking around, that it should be theoretically possible to have a computer program tell you what your optimal lineup would be, given (a) the fixed point or salary cap value of each player in the pool, (b) the total point or salary cap available, and (c) your estimate of each player's performance for the day.

Obviously, the challenge is primarily in (c), but as a practical matter dealing with the size of the player pool is the programming and data entry headache. Enter tonight - with only 2 contests and a 39 player pool, the numbers are manageable. Huzzah!

I saved for posterity the roster I picked in a spare moment at work. I didn't expend any great time on it (it's a $1 contest), but I think it's pretty close to what I would have selected. 240 point cap.

My hand-picked roster:

MWilliams, Nelson, Pavlovic, Szczerbiak, Duncan, Varejao, James, Turkoglu, DHoward.

After I finished creating my program, I plugged in some "expected" numbers. For about half the guys, I used projections from a web site. For most of the scrubs, I just made them up. I didn't waste a ton of time on this, because heck the first game of the evening was almost over by the time I finished. Ideally, I would have had it done earlier in the day, but there is this inconvenience called "work".

Anyhow, the roster the program gave me based on those "expected" numbers:

Parker, Mo Williams, Pietrus, Pavlovic, Duncan, Varejao, James, Turkoglu, Shaq.

This was the "best" lineup by a margin of two expected scoring points, and the only one of the top ten that had Shaq in place of Howard. Projected total score of 258 points. (Using the projected numbers, my roster was at 255).

In part 2 of this post (coming tomorrow, hopefully) we see: (a) Which roster performed better, and (b) What the optimal roster would have been based on actual game performance. I will be stunned if either roster is within 20 points of optimal, although I guess it's possible.

Rosters, Saved For Posterity

Update: FYI, my computer says there are 3,945 different ways to arrange today's tiny 39 player pool into a roster of exactly 240 points. I'm not saying that's right - or that it's anything optimal - I'm just saying. This number is inflated, of course, by the large number of (semi-) interchangeable 10 point players. Also: I'm glad I didn't analyze 64,152,000 combinations* by hand.

*(There are some inefficiencies in this count due to having multiples at 4 of the 5 positions - rather than get fancy, I just included certain unacceptable combinations in the total count. Actually, it works out, because one of the benefits of the way that I set it up is that it'll give me 8 player combinations that total 240 as well).

---

Just saving these for the record. I'll explain later (hopefully).

Oh, and feel free to laugh at the lineups. They suck.

Wanted: A Better Injury Feed

Almost a very good day. Lost a heads up contest by one point. Single digits out of the money in the 10 player contests.

I was a little surprised that Danny Granger didn't play, since I hadn't read that he was anything worse than probable. Judging from a few of the rosters, I wasn't the only one. I was lucky to win both contests where I had selected him.

Wednesday results: 6 contests entered (2 - 10 player, 1 - 6 player, 3 HU); 3 cashes (0, 1, 2); amount risked: $19.80; amount won: $26.00; net $6.20; ROI +31.3%

Only two NBA games tonight, you know what that means. I will not be risking anything of note.

I do have an idea for a fun little programming project that's been begging for a night like this. If I can remember how to manipulate arrays and actually do the coding, I think the results would be entertaining. No promises, though.

The Wish List: Contest Population / Repopulation

(Part of what will be an occasional series on features I'd like to see added to Fantasy Sports Live. Please note that these are strictly my personal wishes, and they may or may not be something the good folks at FSL would ever consider. For all I know, they may be impractical - that's why this is a "wish" list)

If you've visited the Fantasy Sports Live site or are a player, you know that the contest lobby on the main page contains a listing of open contests which are available for entry.

If you are the first person to enter a heads up contest (or if you enter but do not fill a multi-player contest), that contest will show up at the top of your screen in the "My Contests" section of the page. Once it fills up or starts running, it will be noted as "Closed". Once you're in, the contest no longer shows up under "Other Contests".

Once a contest fills up, a new empty contest of the same type may be added to "Other Contests" - the contest list is repopulated. If it's close to game time, some contest types (especially multis) will not be repopulated.

I don't know exactly how the site repopulation system works, but I do have a couple of wishes -

1. I'd like to see population of the full spectrum of heads up contests - the more options the better.

I realize that if you have 10 or 15 different varieties of basketball contest, you risk shoving other sports way down the main page. But you'd think that the individual sport tabs would be sufficient to deal with that for anyone actually bent on playing.

2. If automatic repopulation of heads up contests isn't being done, it should be (imo), since unfilled heads up competitions don't run and there's no risk of FSL having to pay out an overlay.

Just glancing at the lobby at the moment, there isn't an open $5.50 no cap HU basketball contest. There is at least one that's been filled, so the contest type exists, and there are open contests at the $11 and $22 level. If that's what I wanted to play, I would be frustrated.

3. In at least some cases, it would be nice to have a larger population of the same contest type. Right now, the contest population is generally 1 contest of a given type. If I want to enter $3.40 heads up 260 point basketball contests, I have to enter one, then wait for it close (someone matches up). Then an empty contest is populated and I can enter a second contest. Rinse, repeat. If I wanted to play four or five of the same contests, I might be waiting a while.

Or suppose that you want to play that same type of contest, but you see that the one open contest has an entrant - your nemesis. Your choice is to either suck it up or wait until someone else fills the spot. (Or, I suppose, play something else or not play).

For at least the most popular heads up contest types (again, I'm not suggesting that FSL should expose themselves to any risk of overlay), I'd like to see 2 open contests in the lobby. This isn't a perfect solution to either issue, but it would at least be an improvement imo.

Future Musings On Salary Cap Contests Go Here

Deep thoughts are a little beyond me this morning. Thanks a bunch Bobcats and Lakers for the double overtime game, 1:30 a.m. finishes are always appreciated.

In any event, I was bemused yesterday by the high level of correlation between rosters in my contests. With nine man rosters, my opponent and I had 6, 7, 8, 8 and 8 identical picks. Much of that is just the nature of salary cap contests, I suppose - it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that Danny Granger at $28k is a bargain and that picking him allows you extra cap room to select Lebron and Dwight Howard. Which everybody did, of course.

The highest level of "variation" between my roster and my opponent's came with a slightly lower salary cap. For that contest I actually had to think a little bit instead of selecting mostly by reflex. Tightening the salary cap by itself, though, isn't likely to produce more variance in rosters - if tightened much it's likely to produce exactly the opposite result, as everybody grabs the same handful of productive players with sub-$50k salaries in order to fill a last slot or two with a higher-salaried player.

I had some kind of point that I was going to make, but it escapes me at the moment. Maybe I'll try and clean this up later.

***

In other news, thank you Mo Williams.

Tuesday results: 6 contests entered (1 - 10 player, 5 HU); 4 cashes (0, 4); amount risked: $22.20; amount won: $28.00; net: $5.80; ROI +26.1%

Finished fourth in the multi - if only Kobe hadn't fouled out.

12 NBA games on the schedule tonight, so lots of guys to choose from and lots of thinking to do in preparation. It should be a high scoring evening, as there are a lot of good offense vs terrible defense games. Pick well!

*facepalm*

Okay, now this is just silly.

I'm in five heads up contests tonight. Five different opponents. There are five NBA games on the schedule.

First one - we have the same roster, except I have Mo Williams, opponent Jameer Nelson.
Second one - exact same thing - Williams vs Nelson, everyone else the same
Third one - again, 8 guys the same, this time it's Williams vs Chauncey Billups
Fourth one - Williams and O.J. Mayo vs Nelson and J.R. Smith. Otherwise ... the same
Fifth - well, at least there are three players different in this one: Felton, Brewer and Kobe vs Billups, Smith and Kevin Martin.

So much for multiple opponents reducing variance. Maybe I should switch to hockey.

Not Serious Enough For The Wish List

Back when I first got into fantasy baseball back in the late 80s/early 90s, I participated in a group that competed to assemble the worst lineup money could buy. You assembled a roster in regular fantasy fashion, but your goal was to pick guys as offensively inept and as strike zone-challenged as possible. To maximize your chances of winning your guys had to actually play - and stay in the lineup despite their ineptitude. You dreamed of picking a whole roster full of guys like Alvaro Espinoza vintage 1990 - .224 average, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB in 438 ABs.

I was thinking yesterday that this would be a fun concept for daily fantasy contests, and one which you could apply to each of the major sports. Where else could Cheikh Samb* be a potential team MVP?

This isn't a serious suggestion, because I'm sure it would be kind of a headache to program - you'd have to have a penalty of x number of points for guys who don't play at all - you're rewarding ineptitude, not bench warming - and you'd have to flip the payouts so low score wins. That and you'd have to have the right contest description - it would never do to have someone come in and pick Kobe and LeBron, put up 300 points and whine because they finished last.

Anyway, I just believe it's an amusing idea. Carry on.

* (I thought of Cheikh Samb because I was following the last quarter of the Blazers-Clippers game and the Clippers may have set an all time record for "who dat?"s on one roster)

***

Yesterday's results. I had good scores of 300+ points but my opponents generally had better. Except in the 10 player contest, in which I had my lowest score but still won. Goofy.

Monday results: 5 contests entered (1 - 10 max, 4 HU); 2 cashes (1, 1); amount risked: $16.70; amount won: $10.00; net: ($6.70); ROI: -40.1%

Review Your Game

I spent a little time this morning puzzling over my basketball numbers. It hasn't been a particularly good month - the losses are nominal (woo cheeseburgers), but the steady losing is rather annoying. So I plugged some results information into a spreadsheet and sorted it by contest size and type. The results were, uh, illuminating.

Essentially - and I certainly note that this is a VERY small sample size - I have been crushing one type of contest and getting crushed at everything else. Really, this is a more extreme repeat of my football experience - I ran notably better at certain types of contests. In any event, with a decent volume of contests available, I should be playing the games I can win and not screwing around with the others. All I had to do was put it on (virtual) paper to see it.

Between now and the end of the month, I am going to be focusing on that one winning contest type, to see if things can continue. Here's hoping that I'm on to something.

The Wrong Side of the Razor's Edge

Today's basketball contests just went final, so of course I had to check.

In the contests in which I did not cash, I missed doing so by .... one point in one, two points in the other (scores of over 270 points in each). One more basket by the right guy and it would have been a nicely "profitable" day.

Argh.

Sunday results: 4 contests entered (3 - 6 max, 1 HU); 2 cashes (1, 1); amount risked: $8.80; amount won: $7; net: ($1.80); ROI: -20.5%.

7 games on the schedule tomorrow - except for a 2 game Thursday, this is a busy week for basketball. I'll keep plugging away, risking my virtual cheeseburgers, until I decide whether I can win at this game.

Not My Game

Basketball results continue to be negative. It's rather embarrassing to finish last, which I did in two of my three 10 player contests.

Saturday results: 4 contests entered (3 - 10 max, 1 HU); 1 cash (HU); amount risked: $8.80; amount won: $6.00; net: ($2.80); ROI: - 31.8%

Still, I suppose I'll be taking another whack at it today, since the losses have been of the happy meal size and up until yesterday I'd thought I was making (increasingly) solid selections.

Cliche Time

It's a game of inches. Missed out on cashing in my 6 man by two points. Too many Westbrook bricks.

Friday results: 4 contests entered (1 - 6 max, 3 HU); 2 cashes (0, 2); amount risked: $11.20; amount won: $9; net: ($2.20); ROI - 24.4%

Six games on the schedule tonight, so it's time to get back on that horse. Stupid horse.

A War of Words

This might qualify as off topic, but whatever.

Draftmix is a competitor (at least sorta) of Fantasy Sports Live. I've never played at Draftmix. There hasn't been any activity at that site, lately, which prompted Blinders (of FSL) to put up a post on his blog titled RIP Draftmix?

Today, Matt Maroon of Draftmix fired back with a blog post of his own - Game On, in which he says that not only is Draftmix not dead, it has had more traffic than FSL. Somewhere in there I think he called Blinders' momma a name, too.

Is the game really on? We shall see.

On the merits, I have no idea who's right, and I'm not sure it really matters. If the products are truly different, there is plenty of room for both. If Draftmix is around come football season, I might check into the site just to try out a live draft, but I have to say that I'm quite happy with the FSL product and management and it'll remain "home" for my daily fantasy sports action for the forseeable future.

***

On a completely unrelated note, congratulations to Kaiseroll13 for passing the 2500 win mark at FSL and to Buffalo66 for going over 2000. Man that's a lot of wins. I'm stuck at 123 for the moment, but I'm still working my way up the leaderboard.

Good luck to all, and to all a good night.

LOL Basketball Contests

Gee, who do you think is going to win THIS salary cap contest?


Uh, yeah, that would be Fantasy Sports Live. At least I don't have to check the scoring when it's over.

I'm in four contests tonight. Checking, I see that in another salary cap contest, Sconie and I have seven players in common - he has D. Rose and Bosh, I have Westbrook and my main man Al Jefferson. In my heads up point contest we only have two (!) players in common. And the six man one dolla is still open because it's an 8:00 ET start.

I really ought to move up to the $5.50 contests for the slightly lower rake, but when I sign up late like I did again today, I'll play what I can. Don't have the confidence yet to move up to the $11s or $22s.

Yesterday pretty much sucked, but since it was a small player pool day (only 2 games), I didn't risk much.

Thursday results: 2 contests entered (1 - 10 max, 1 - 6 max); 0 cashes; amount risked: $2.00; amount won: $0.00; net: ($2.00); ROI -100%

Change +1

Finally, a successful day at hoops.

Wednesday results: 2 contests entered (1 - 6 player, 1 HU); 2 cashes (1, 1); amount risked: $4.40; amount won: $10.00; net: +$5.60; ROI: + 127.3%

Tuesday results : DNP, wary of change

Monday results: DNP, forced to work on alleged holiday

Only two games on the schedule tonight, so play will be minimal. Maybe I'll work on a strategy post or something.

Fantasy Sports Live Forum

The official Fantasy Sports Live blog tipped users to a forum (message board) created for discussion of Fantasy Sports Live. You can find that board here if you're so inclined.

I've read through it - there's not much there at the moment - and it's at least a little entertaining, with someone who wants to start his/her own competing site suggesting goofy changes to the basketball contests.

I don't know if there will ever be much traffic on the board, but you might add it to your list of ways to waste time at work.

And That's It For Football Season

Two pretty decent playoff games if you ask me.

I'm on record as saying that the playoffs are the silly season of fantasy football, so of course I didn't risk any serious capital on today's contests. Just one, of the one dollar variety. And what do you know, I picked the right guys. Of course, so did most everyone else (except I got Celek), including one guy who had exactly the same roster. Whatever, I'll take it.

Sunday results (football): 1 contest entered (10 max), 1 cash; amount risked: $1; amount won: $4; net: +$3; ROI +300%

We now enter the semi-offseason. I haven't been playing hockey contests, mostly because I haven't been paying any attention whatsoever. That leaves basketball, and I continue to have serious reservations as to whether I can win enough for it to be profitable. Too many regulars, too many people with the same or similar information. I will probably continue to play here and there while I sort things out, but it's not likely to be a (rim shot please) full court press.

Oh, and for the record:

Saturday results: DNP, another foot of snow
Friday results: DNP, worried about tainted peanut butter
Thursday results: DNP, ill with inauguration fever

Icy Cold

Another narrow loss in basketball. 10 points this time. Opponent dug up a bench player that had 19-5-2 plus a block and no turnovers. Who? Francisco Garcia. Yeah. Francisco Garcia. Stupid triple overtime games. It also meant that Jamal Crawford had 60 minutes of court time to chuck up 31 shots. Yeesh.

Don't mind me. Just venting a little, since the walls and my computer don't listen well.

Monday results: DNP, subarctic conditions

Tuesday results: DNP, full arctic conditions

Wednesday results: 1 contest entered (HU); 0 cashes; amount risked: $5.50; amount won: $0; net: ($5.50); ROI -100%

Fantasy Sports Live Cashout Trip Report

Live! As it happens!

Wednesday, 8:18 pm ET: I request a cashout. Send to Paypal plzkthx. It takes about five seconds to submit the request.

9:30 pm ET: Shut down computer, go do other stuff.

Thursday, 9:20 am ET: Remember that I requested a cashout. Check Paypal. Money is there (of course), looks like it went through around midnight.

There you have it. Fast. Easy. None of the headaches involved with - or so I've heard - cashing out of a poker or sportsbook site. U.S. based + UIGEA approved = the nuts.

Break Extended

Still nothing happening. Life stuff.

Sunday results (football): 1 contest entered (10 max); 0 cashes; amount risked: $1; amount won: $0; net: ($1); ROI -100%

Sunday results (basketball): 1 contest entered (6 max); 0 cashes; amount risked: $1; amount won: $0; net: ($1); ROI -100%

Out of the money by three lousy points in basketball. So rigged.

Commercial Break

Taking a few days off, other than the occasional $1 contest as a goof. Football is well into the silly season and I'm definitely having doubts as to whether I can win enough basketball contests to maintain a positive ROI.

Tuesday: 1 contest entered (6 max); 0 cashes; amount risked: $1; amount won: $0; net: ($1); ROI-100%

Wednesday: DNP, internal conflict

Thursday: DNP, external conflict

Friday: DNP, extraterrestrial conflict

Saturday (football): 1 contest entered (10 max); 0 cashes; amount risked: $1; amount won: $0; net: ($1); ROI: -100%

Two contests today, zero time spent. Expectations are accordingly low.

Back To Stats Class

Light day yesterday. Donated to Kaiseroll13, like he needs it. Tony Parker's very pedestrian game (8 points, 7 assists) was the dagger.

Monday results: 1 contest entered (HU); 0 cashes; total risked: $5.50; total won: $0; net ($5.50); ROI -100%

I'm busy working on a numbers-intensive post but am finding it slow going. The biggest roadblock is my rustiness with statistics. It's been a few years since I've done anything much more complicated than finding an average. That's why everything to date has really dealt with heads up contests - the math is easy. When you get into 6 and 10 player contests, it becomes harder. Fortunately I think I have an old B-school stats textbook down in the basement and I can probably get this figured out.

Now if only I could figure out basketball. That's four losing days in a row and it needs to stop.

Fantasy Sports Live ROI Charts (Incomplete)

{Ed note: Nothing much to see here, this is a work in process. I want to have a set of ROI charts up for convenient reference when I unleash a series of math-heavy analysis posts. Someday.}

Wrapping Up The Weekend

The games today were not as interesting. That didn't stop me from watching, of course. Fantasy-wise it'll go down as a small win, and that's about all I can say for it.

Sunday results - football: 4 contests entered (4 - 10 player, 0 - 6 player, 0 HU); 1 cash (1, 0, 0); total risked: $8.50; total won: $15.00; net: + $6.50; ROI +76.5%

Sunday results - basketball: 1 contest entered (HU); 0 cashes; amount risked: $3.40; amount won: $0.00; net: ($3.40); ROI: -100%

Super Chargers Suck Out

I don't think Roger Goodell could have dreamed up a more exciting finish to the first day of playoff football. Colts-Chargers was a very entertaining game. The Falcons-Cards game wasn't half bad either. We'll see if either game tomorrow even comes close.

There was an Alcoa fantastic finish in one of my football contests - I ended up 0.7 points out of the money and 3.4 points out of first. Manning and Gates did just barely enough to bump me... if only my TE coin toss this morning had come up Peele (lol).

I also lost a basketball contest by four points, so it was a losing day in basketball.

Saturday results - Football: 2 contests entered (2 - 10 player, 0 - 6 player, 0 - HU); 1 cash (1, 0, 0); amount risked: $4.40; amount won: $5.00; net: +$0.60; ROI +13.7%

Saturday results - Basketball: 4 contests entered (all HU); 2 cashes (2 HU); amount risked: $17.80; amount won: $12.00; net: ($5.80); ROI - 32.6%

As for tomorrow, I'm in three contests in football and will probably try very hard to refrain from entering more, although I suppose I probably will. One of my contests is a "FCBS" contest (oops) - judging from the lack of Fantasy Sports Live regulars in the other FCBS contests, I may well be an interloper. One basketball contest thus far and with an early tipoff play there may be light as well.

Sleep well, pick better.

Rake 1, Bonds 0

My streak of positive cash days is over. Barely. You know, it helps when you win the right contests.

This was kind of cool, though:

Average of 43 points per player. LOL.

Friday results: 3 contests entered (0 - 10 player, 0 - 6 player, 3 HU); 2 cashes (0, 0, 2); amount risked: $12.30; amount won: $12.00; net: ($0.30); ROI -2.4%

For today, I added one more football contest but will probably leave it at that. Again, yuck. I'm in three basketball contests and may add as many as two more. I could add hockey and go for the trifecta, but that would just be dumb.

Playoff Football, Week 1

Contests are up for both Saturday and Sunday at Fantasy Sports Live. I haven't been able to figure out why some have the usual labels and others have "FCBS Playoff" labels, but it's late and I'm tired.

I'm only in two contests so far - one each day. I'm not crazy about Saturday's matchups and I flat out hate Sunday's. Sunday has the worst set of receivers available ever - check it out.

I'm not a big fan of small player pool days to begin with, so I will be in very few contests this weekend - I might have to play basketball instead.

Back On The Hardwood

After a relaxing day off - seriously, NBA, no games on New Year's Day? It's not like there were all that many bowl games! - I'm back in action with three NBA contests tonight. Tons of games which means a huge player pool and handicapping headaches galore. To mix things up as much as possible, I'm in one regular point cap contest, one limited schedule point cap contest and one salary cap contest which is a real All Star fest. Good times.

Thursday results: DNP, David Stern hates New Year's Day.

Resolute

Oh no, a new year's resolutions post. Quite possible the most boring topic on planet blog. I know, I dislike them every bit as much as you do.

Bear with me, though, because this is less about resolutions than it is about mapping out a plan. A plan for fantasy play in '09 (at Fantasy Sports Live obviously), a plan for this blog and that sort of thing. It just happens that I'm posting it on January 1 because I have the day off and time for this sort of thing. Here we go:

Resolution #1: Play more.

If you ask me - and pretend that you just did - the key to success at fantasy sports is to (1) find an edge and (2) exploit that edge as often as possible. Win, repeat. I had a good 2008 as far as the win part goes, but was lax when it comes to playing. Seven day in December, something like 11 or 12 in November. Not enough.

Goal: Average 15 days per month.

Chances of success: Fair. In order to reach this goal, I need to adjust my schedule slightly. With basketball and hockey contests often starting at 7:00, I can't just arrive home at 6:30 and sign up. I need to set my lineups further ahead and just review them for injuries and errors in that window before game time.

Resolution #2: Move up the leaderboard.

This is really an extension of resolution #1, because to move up the leaderboard, I have to win more contests which means I have to play more. Pretty simple. It also means that I have to attempt to master other sports - thus far I've been a football specialist. Basketball has been going better of late. I've been staying out of hockey but will reconsider if time permits. The biggest change will be getting back into baseball.

Goal: 350 wins, top 20 ranking

Chances of success: Fair to good. I ended 2008 with 114 wins and at #42 on the leaderboard. Most of those wins came over the last three months, and that's with minimal non-football play. If I can continue to have some success at basketball and also figure out a way to win at baseball, I like my chances. Of course I have to continue to manage my "bankroll" - some of which will be cashed out for real life needs - and not tilt when things go bad. At the moment 208 wins is 20th on the board, so 350 is a guess as to what it will take.

Resolution #3: Get systematic.

The best fantasy players I know (both online and off) have at least a rudimentary system which they follow carefully in making their selections. I do have a system of sorts for football, but it honestly could be refined and tightened up. More importantly, I need to do a better job of following it - less player variation, less contest variation. I do not have much of a system for basketball at this point and none at all for baseball, hockey or NASCAR. I need to get on developing those if I'm going to increase my play volume in 09.

Goal: Develop and apply systems for at least three sports.

Chances of success: Fair to low. Time is always a factor.

Resolution #4: Make this site more helpful.

At the moment, I have too many "here are my results" type posts. Well those are all well and good (and let's be honest here, they're not going away because they're for me). But they're not why other people would want to read the site and come back more than once.

Goal: Compile a set of links and resource guides for players of daily fantasy sports contests. Offer more of a one stop shopping approach. I also want to add more strategy content - although there are limits as to how much I'm going to give away - and analysis.

Chances of success: Fair to good. This isn't hard, it's mostly a matter of taking the time. If I can get a good jump on it before golf season arrives I think it'll happen.

Resolution #5: Have fun with it.

So far anyway, both the play and this site have been fun. I want to keep it that way. If either becomes too much of a grind, they're going to be put aside.

Goal: As it says, have fun.

Chances of success: Good. No doomswitch please!

A December To Remember

Month end wrap up time. December was, uh, good. Thanks to last night's suckout, I did not have a single losing day all month. Of course I only played 7 days - 4 football and 3 basketball. The dollars won weren't all that impressive thanks to two pretty much break even football days. Still, ROI was 28.3% which is quite satisfactory.

Charts?

Charts. Or maybe these are graphs. Whatever.

First, the only one that really matters, cumulative dollars won. All I really care about, of course, is that the line stays above zero...
Individual days. Not real impressive.
And daily ROIs. Pretty much meaningless.
Now that I've probably doomed myself for January, onward.

The Gift

Happy New Year!

I just logged in to Fantasy Sports Live and found myself a little present - somehow, some way I ended up with a three point win in the basketball contest I entered yesterday. Andre Iguodala must have had a big fourth quarter, since he would have been the guy who dug me out of about a ten point hole.

I have a couple posts I'm working on today, we'll see if I can keep focused and get them up.

Wednesday results: 1 contest entered (0 - 10 player, 0 - 6 player, 1 HU); 1 cash (0, 0, 1); amount risked: $5.50; amount won: $10.00; net: +$4.50; ROI: +81.8%

Tuesday results: DNP, partying with Charles Barkley

Monday results: DNP, laid low by holiday leftovers